Scenarios for 2015

Opeyemi Agbaje

With the conclusion of the Osun State governorship election and re-election of Rauf Aregbesola, the march to the main prizes in 2015 is now a sprint! The only major event before the 2015 general elections will be the Adamawa governorship fixed for October 11, 2014 as a result of the impeachment of Admiral Murtala Nyako and his deputy, James Bala Ngilari. 

The PDP primaries to select its Adamawa candidate will be very competitive, and it is difficult to predict who the eventual nominee will be between Usman Fintiri, the acting governor; Ngilari, the ousted deputy; M. B Marwa, Awwal Tukur, Marcus Gundiri, Ahmed Gulak, Nuhu Ribadu who has reportedly returned to PDP, and others who are seeking the nomination, but whoever emerges may be the presumptive new governor, except the primaries leaves the party so fractured as to hand victory over to the opposition.

The Osun State election diverged from the Ekiti outcome for three main reasons-first, unlike Ekiti where APC was severely factionalised with the exit of Opeyemi Bamidele and depletion of the APC and legacy parties ranks over several migrations since 1999, the APC in Osun State was relatively intact, at least since 2010, and in fact made tactically important acquisitions in Senator Isiaka Adeleke and ex-Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola. While Adeleke proved to have significant electoral value in a swing town, Ede, the strategic and propaganda value of Oyinlola’s defection was potent! Secondly, unlike in Ekiti, no matter his deficiencies, Aregbesola couldn’t be accused of being disconnected from the grassroots who were indeed the entire focus of his propaganda and mobilization since he became governor and it was virtually impossible in spite of PDP’s strong ground operation to disconnect the populace from the APC incumbent. Finally the point has been made that in spite of his hard work and federal support, Omisore was a candidate with significant baggage principally relating to the circumstances surrounding the unresolved murder of late Chief Bola Ige. 

If one applies the lessons of Osun State to the three Western States to be contested in 2015, the portents are cautionary for the APC-the Oyo State governor, Ajimobi is not as grounded as Aregbesola and his chapter is seriously factionalised; the Ogun APC is in irreparable (?) conflict with the more popular and entrenched grassroots faction led by Chief Segun Osoba on their way out; and it will be difficult to preserve party unity in Lagos after what promises to be controversial primaries. For PDP, the party is reminded that it must unite the party behind its eventual candidates, and pick easily sellable and uncontroversial candidates. Contrary to the hubris encouraged by Ayo Fayose’s easy victory in Ekiti State, it is unlikely that a South-West electorate will elect Buruji Kashamu or Musiliu Obanikoro! 

The other Southern zones are more predictable-both the South-East and South-South will be easily swept by the PDP in both governorship and presidential voting in spite of the best efforts of Chibuike Amaechi, Adams Oshiomhole, Rochas Okorocha and Timipre Silva. The governorship polls in Rivers State will of course be sui generis, dependent on both parties candidate selection while the Edo version coming after 2015 general elections will be shaped by the outcome of the 2015 vote. The North-Central is also presumed PDP territory, with interesting battles in Kwara and Nasarawa, in both of which I expect the PDP to be very competitive. “Middle-Belters” across the North will vote almost universally for the PDP in both governorship and presidential elections, though many Hausa-Fulanis in the region may vote for “individuals” rather than parties in the presidential contest.

The governorship elections in the North-West and North-East promise to be epic battles with well-entrenched and popular APC governors fighting to defend Kano, Sokoto, Zamfara, Yobe etc. while less comfortable ones such as in Borno will struggle to survive. The PDP has momentum on its side in many Northern states with defectors like Senator Ali Modu Sherrif, former governor and current minister Ibrahim Shekarau, ex-Sokoto governor Attahiru Bafawara and former ACN governorship candidate in Kwara State M. D Belgore improving the ruling party’s competitiveness up North. 

The PDP’s presumptive presidential candidate is of course President Goodluck Jonathan. His adversaries have used every conceivable weapon to destroy his viability as a candidate in 2015 yet to no avail, and may now be praying for “divine” intervention. Consequently Jonathan’s most plausible obstacle to running (as opposed to winning) in 2015 will be his health and safety, and his strategists must understand the implications of this hypothesis! There will be back-up candidates to Jonathan, perhaps Senate President David Mark, Vice President Namadi Sambo and ruling party chairman Adamu Muazu in the event of Jonathan’s non-availability! It is on the APC side that choice of presidential candidate will be most consequential. The party appears bent on forcing perennial presidential candidate, Muhammadu Buhari who has failed in three attempts in 2003, 2007 and 2011 down the throats of the electorate once more, but it has default options in Kwankwanso of Kano; Wammako of Sokoto, House Speaker Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, Governors Fashola, Amaechi and Oshiomhole from the South etc. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar who has also angled for the top job in 2003, 2007 and 2011 is also in the mix.

It would be premature to project possible outcomes and scenario drivers at this point, until the parties select their candidates and the battlefield formations become complete.

Opeyemi Agbaje